Review the ADP Improve Retention, Improve Lives,€ then write 1 to 2 paragraphs in each section of your paper in response to the following prompts: New Learning: Identify five

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Applied Doctoral Project

Stacie Hughes

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree of

Doctorate of Business Administration

at Indiana Wesleyan University

This study used pseudonyms for the name of the Historically Black Community College,

the names of informational interview participants, and the location of the college

in recognition that confidentiality and anonymity are paramount in academic

consultative research.

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IMPROVE RETENTION, IMPROVE LIVES

Stacie Hughes

This Applied Doctoral Project has been approved for the degree of Doctor of Business

Administration.

Dr. Debbie Philpott Date

DBA Faculty & Research Chair

DeVoe School of Business

Indiana Wesleyan University

Dr. Joe Childs

07/11/2022

DBA Chair Date

DeVoe School of Business

Indiana Wesleyan University

07/11/2022

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DEDICATION I dedicate this work in loving memory of my nephew, Aaron Brady Phillips.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I express my sincerest gratitude to my research chair, Dr. Debbie Philpott, who has been with me every step. Her boundless knowledge, guidance, support, patience, and encouragement made this work not only possible but enjoyable. I could not have asked for a better research chair, mentor, and friend. I am a better scholar, practitioner, and person because of her. Thank you to my partner organization, which has requested anonymity in publication. While I cannot mention the individuals within the organization by name, I am eternally grateful for their willingness to support and assist with this project. I want to thank my mother for being a strong, beautiful role model and always believing in me, even when I did not believe in myself. Thank you to my brother, Eric, for the late-night talks and for ensuring my four- legged family had someone caring to spend time with when I was busy studying and writing. My sincere thanks to Jim for the friendship, support, encouragement, and laughs that kept me going. Finally, I want to express love and gratitude to my four-legged pack, Archer, Buttercup, Baxter, Harley, and Ellie. The unconditional love, nonstop antics, and pure joy gave me comfort and motivation every day of this journey.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 LIST OF TABLES …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 LIST OF FIGURES …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 APA MODIFICATIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 10 SECTION 1: PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION AND INVESTIGATION ……………………………………………………….. 12

ORGANIZATION OVERVIEW ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 13 ABOUT MARBLE STATE COMMUNITY COLLEGE …………………………………………………………………….. 13

A HISTORY …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13 MARBLE STATE COMMUNITY COLLEGE STRATEGIC PLAN ………………………………………………………. 14 PROBLEM DESCRIPTION ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 QUESTIONS POSED BY MARBLE STATE LEADERSHIP ………………………………………………………………. 14

PROBLEM SCENARIO ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 15 DISCOVERY & IDENTIFICATION OF THE PROBLEM …………………………………………………………………….. 16 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PROBLEM …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 17 BROADER IMPLICATIONS OF THE PROBLEM …………………………………………………………………………….. 19 PURPOSE OF THE PROJECT ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PROJECT ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20 SUMMARY ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 21

SECTION 2: DIAGNOSING THE PROBLEM ……………………………………………………………………………………… 22 PRESENTING PROBLEM ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AT-A-GLANCE ……………………………………………………………………………… 23 EDUCATION INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 25

OVERVIEW ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 INDUSTRY FACTS AT-A-GLANCE …………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 INDUSTRY TRENDS …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26 PORTER’S FIVE FORCES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 27

ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS AT-A-GLANCE ……………………………………………………………………………… 28 MISSION, VISION, VALUES ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 28 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 28 CURRENT STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT DATA …………………………………………………………………………….. 28 SWOT ANALYSIS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 29 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 30

DIAGNOSING THE PROBLEM …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 31 FACTS, ASSUMPTIONS, KNOWLEDGE GAPS ………………………………………………………………………….. 31 PROBLEM STATEMENT ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34 OVERARCHING QUESTION ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34 GUIDING QUESTIONS FOR EXPLORING POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ……………………………………………… 35 SCOPE ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35

SUMMARY ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 36 SECTION 3: EXPLORING THE SOLUTIONS ……………………………………………………………………………………… 37

PERSPECTIVES ON THE PROBLEM ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 37 COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 38

THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL RETENTION FRAMEWORKS ………………………………………………… 38 INNOVATIVE AND STUDENT-CENTERED RETENTION SOLUTIONS ……………………………………………. 45

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KEY PERFORMANCE MEASURES ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 51 STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS AS PREDICTORS ……………………………………………………………………….. 53 INTERVENTION PRACTICES ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 55 BENCHMARKS ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 56 NEED FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION …………………………………………………………………………………… 60 METHODOLOGY …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 60

SUMMARY ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 60 SECTION 4: MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES & TEST SOLUTION ……………………………………………………………….. 61

MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES FRAMEWORK ……………………………………………………………………………….. 62 PLANNED INQUIRY …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 62 INQUIRY DESIGN ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 62 INQUIRY EXECUTED ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 67 MARBLE STATE CURRENT RETENTION AND INTERVENTION PRACTICES ………………………………….. 68 MARBLE STATE ENROLLMENT, RETENTION, AND GRADUATION RATES …………………………………… 73 DATA ANALYSIS …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 76 LIMITATIONS AND GENERALIZABILITY …………………………………………………………………………………. 77 MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS FRAMEWORK …………………………………………………………………………………… 78 POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 78 FRAMEWORK TO EVALUATE SOLUTIONS ……………………………………………………………………………… 79 EVALUATION OF SOLUTIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 80 IDENTIFICATION OF TEST SOLUTION ……………………………………………………………………………………. 83 SUMMARY ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 85

SECTION 5: CHANGE MANAGEMENT PLAN ………………………………………………………………………………….. 86 BUSINESS CASE FOR CHANGE ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 87 REFRAMING THE ORGANIZATION ………………………………………………………………………………………… 91 USING A MULTIFRAME PERSPECTIVE …………………………………………………………………………………… 93 PLANNED CHANGE INTERVENTION MODELING …………………………………………………………………….. 94 PLAN FOR CHANGE MANAGEMENT ……………………………………………………………………………………… 94 IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERVENTIONS ……………………………………………………………………………….. 95 COMMUNICATION PLAN …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 98 EVALUATION: MEASURING THE MANAGED CHANGE …………………………………………………………….. 99 REINFORCEMENT STRATEGIES …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 99 SCENARIO PLANNING ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 100 ACTION PLAN …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 101

CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 103 References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 104 Appendix A …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 121 Appendix B……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 123 Appendix C ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 125 Appendix D …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 129 Appendix E ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 130 Endnotes ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 133

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ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation Name

AACC ACCS ACHE ACUE ADP APA AY CCCSE CCSSE CM Marble State FTE FTIC GPA GSU HBCC HBCU HPT IEBC IPEDS MOOC NAICS NCCBP NSO PBCC POC SDT STEM USF VFA

American Association of Community Colleges Alabama Community College System Alabama Commission on Higher Education Association of College and University Educators Applied doctoral project American Psychological Association Academic year Center for Community College Student Engagement Community College Survey of Student Engagement Change management Marble State Community College Full-time-equivalent First-time-in-college Grade point average Georgia State University Historically Black Community College Historically Black Colleges and Universities Human Performance Technology Institute for Evidence-Based Change Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Massive Open Online Course North American Industry Classification System National Community College Benchmark Project New Student Orientation Predominantly Black Community College Point of contact Self-determination theory Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics University of South Florida Voluntary Framework of Accountability

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LIST OF TABLES Table Title Page

1 Low-Income Levels in the United States 52 2 Retention Rates for U.S. 4-Year and 2-Year Title IV Institutions 55 3 First-Time-in-College (FTIC) Persistence Rate Benchmarks 56 4 Second-Year Undergraduate Term-to-Term Persistence Rate Benchmarks 56 5 Transfer Rates for U.S. Community Colleges 56 6 Graduation Rates for U.S. 4-Year and 2-Year Title IV Institutions, Total and Public 57 7 Graduation Rates for U.S. 4-Year and 2-Year Title IV Institutions, Private 57 8 Student-to-Faculty Ratios for U.S. 4-Year and 2-Year Title IV Institutions 58 9 FTIC Credit Hours Attempted vs. Credit Hours Completed in Term One 58 10 FTIC Credit Hours Attempted vs. Credit Hours Completed in Term Two 58 11 Institutional Documents and Reports from Internal and External Sources 65 12 Information-Gathering Interviews with Marble State Personnel 65 13 Potential Solutions to Secure and Sustain Higher Retention at Marble State 66 14 Key Performance Measures at Marble State 71 15 Persistence and Retention Rates by Program for Academic Year 2020 74 16 Summary of TOWS Matrix Strategies Prepared for Marble State 75 17 Summary of Gaps Identified in Gap Analysis 76 18 Summary of McKinsey 7-S and Social Capital Analysis of Solutions 80 19 Risk Assessment Matrix for Identified Solutions 81

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure Title Page

1 Full-Time Student Retention Rates for Academic Years 2011–2020 14 2 Part-Time Student Retention Rates for Academic Years 2011–2020 14 3 Fall 2021 Major Enrollment 15 4 Fall 2020 Percentage Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity or Gender 15 5 2020 U.S. Poverty Rates 18 6 Community Colleges in the United States 24 7 Public 2-Year Institutions 2019-20 Revenue by Source (in thousands) 24 8 2020 Fall Enrollment, 2018-19 Degrees and Certificates Awarded 25 9 Public 2-Year Institutions Enrollment 26 10 Private 2-Year Institutions Enrollment 26 11 Full-Time Student Retention Rates 31 12 Part-Time Student Retention Rates 31 13 Fall Enrollment: Marble State 31 14 Fall Enrollment: ACCS Comparison Group 31 15 Fall Enrollment: U.S. Public Two-Year Institution 31 16 Undergraduate Dropout Process Model 37 17 Institutional Departure Model 38 18 Student Attrition Model 39 19 Nontraditional Student Attrition Model 40 20 Integrated Model of Student Retention 41 21 Student-Faculty Informal Contact Model 42 22 Self-Determination Theory Needs in Classrooms and Colleges 43 23 Hypothesized SDT Model for Online Learner Motivation 44 24 Typical Student Support Versus Holistic Student Support 46 25 Conventional View of Relationship Between Net Revenue and Student Outcomes 48 26 Proposed Feedback Loop Between Net Revenue and Student Outcomes 49 27 2-Year Institution Graduation Rate Timeline 50 28 Performance Improvement/HPT Model 62 29 TOWS Matrix 63 30 McKinsey 7-S Framework 63 31 Customized Performance Improvement Model 64 32 Unduplicated Headcount by Program for Academic Years 2018–2020 72 33 Individual Graduates by Program for Academic Years 2018–2020 73 34 Total Graduates by Program for Academic Years 2018–2020 73 35 Scale Utilized to Evaluate McKinsey 7-S Framework Analysis of Solutions 78 36 Scale Utilized to Evaluate Social Capital of Solutions 79 37 Anatomy of the Research Question 86 38 Anatomy of the Authorized Solution 90 39 Force Field Analysis 91 40 The 8-Step Process for Leading Change 93 41 Increasing Expenditures to Increase Budget 95 42 Communication Plan 97 43 Scenario Planning 99 44 Strategy Map 100 45 Action Plan 101

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APA MODIFICATIONS This paper uses The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, Seventh Edition style format. As an applied doctoral project (ADP), there are instances in which a modification of the American Psychological Association (APA) style format is appropriate. The following describes those modifications. Endnotes. Endnotes are used throughout this ADP to identify information provided by the partner organization, Marble State Community College. They are designated by the use of Arabic numbers. The content is single-spaced and located at the end of the document. Figures. Figures are modified from APA. The figure number and title are included below the image. In addition, the figure number, title, and note are single-spaced. Footnotes. Footnotes are used throughout this ADP to provide supplemental information. They are formatted using Roman numerals and single spacing. Spacing. Single line spacing is used throughout this ADP, with double line spacing between paragraphs. This limits the length and evidences a scholar-practitioner approach. Tables. Tables are modified from APA in this ADP. In this report, the table number and title are included below the image. In addition, the table number, title, and note are single-spaced.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction Marble State Community College (Marble State) is a two-year, public, HBCU community college located in Marble City, Alabama. Marble City is a national technology leader, and Marble State is its primary workforce development education and training provider. The institution is focused on training students for employment in career technical programs and university transfer. To that end, the institution identified retention as a strategic plan focus and anticipates the research in this study will support leadership and provide suggestions that can be implemented to better serve its students.

Significance and Purpose of the Study Community colleges provide invaluable services and resources that support and sustain society, including:

• preparing skilled workers to fill industry positions,

• awarding 88% of emergency medical technician certificates,

• awarding 74% of associate degrees for nurses, 74% for clinical laboratory technicians, and 70% for clinical laboratory technologies (Juszkiewicz, 2020),

• educating workers that contribute over $800 billion in income to the national economy,

• educating workers that provide over $46 billion in social service savings,

• helping break cycles of poverty and improve income gap (Blagg & Blom, 2018; EMSI, 2014), and

• providing taxpayers with a 14.3% return on their investment (EMSI, 2014). When institutions do not retain students through to completion, those critical societal needs cannot be realized, and individual students can suffer personal, professional, economic, and social losses. Community college retention lags significantly behind that of four-year institutions. Retention rates at Marble State fall below the average for other Alabama Community College System institutions and public two-year institutions in the United States. Marble State understands the extent to which its students and community rely on its vital contributions and has made improving student retention an integral component of its institutional priorities and strategic plan. The purpose of this study is to assist Marble State in that pursuit.

Research Question The persistent retention issue at community colleges places the well-being of students, two-year institutions, and society at risk. That risk, coupled with declining enrollment, expected demographic cliffs, and policymakers' use of retention as a success indicator, puts increasing pressure on Marble State to improve its retention rates. This study aimed to assist Marble State with improving its retention rates and used the following research question as a guide: Based on a gap analysis, what innovative and student-centered solutions will secure and sustain

higher retention year over year at Marble State Community College, enabling the institution to fulfill its mission?

The researcher developed ten guiding questions to explore potential solutions to the research question, focusing on four primary topics. Those topics included current retention and intervention practices at Marble State, theoretical and conceptual frameworks that inform retention practices, best practices and benchmarks in retention and intervention, and gap analysis as a methodology.

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Data Collection and Methodology A comprehensive review of available literature provided insight into frameworks, best practices and benchmarks, and gap analysis. Current practices and metrics at Marble State were addressed by examining internal and external institutional documents and information-gathering interviews with key retention personnel at Marble State. A customized methodology framework was developed to holistically analyze the data, evaluate potential solutions, and answer the research question. The human performance technology model was used as a guiding framework to facilitate gap analysis, multiple perspective solution evaluation, and identification of the optimal solution. A TOWS matrix informed the actual and desired state of retention at Marble State. A gap analysis identified potential solutions, and each solution was evaluated using the McKinsey 7-S framework, examined for its ability to contribute to the institution's social capital, and assessed for risk.

Recommended and Selected Solution The optimal solution determined by the methodological analysis is to:

Increase student success resources by adding staff to support current and expand future retention and intervention efforts and mitigate risk to operations.

Representatives of Marble State unanimously agreed that the solution identified by the researcher would be the most effective retention solution. Factors leading to this decision included that there is currently a single student success specialist and that the role is heavily involved in many retention and intervention practices. Current staffing limits retention and intervention efforts and puts current practices at risk due to a lack of backup and succession planning. Adding staff in this area would mitigate risk to operations and expand practices aimed at retention and intervention. The researcher conducted a force field analysis to examine the forces for and against the change and more thoroughly inform the change management plan.

Limitations and Generalizability One primary limitation is the generalizability of the findings. While not immediately generalizable, the results can inform retention efforts at other higher education institutions, particularly community and technical colleges. The study can guide practitioners and scholars in retention research methods and future studies. Institutional and environmental changes could impact the viability of the change management plan. For this reason, another limitation is that the study results are applicable for a limited time.

Change Management Plan A comprehensive change management plan was developed to implement the selected solution. Following Kotter's 8-step process for leading change, the primary components of the plan are the implementation of interventions, vision statement, communication plan, evaluation measures, reinforcement strategies, scenario planning, strategy map, and an action plan to drive the change. The detailed action plan includes a list of actions, responsible parties, and a timeline. The project start date is August 1, 2022, and the end date is October 31, 2023. This timeline will facilitate budget policies and procedures and support the systematic and successful implementation of the plan.

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SECTION 1: PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION AND INVESTIGATION

Marble State Community Collegei is a two-year, public, HBCU community college and part of the education industry, specifically the North American Industry Classification System Code 611210, community colleges. Retention is a persistent issue at Marble State and impacts its ability to fulfill its mission. Continued poor retention rates coupled with declining enrollments and looming enrollment cliffs could be detrimental to the institution. It could also significantly impact society through a lack of qualified individuals to fill industry positions, lack of skilled health care workers and first responders, economic losses, higher societal costs, and continuing or increasing income gaps and poverty rates. This study identified factors and practices that impact student retention at community colleges and strategies for improving retention at Marble State. Using the DeVoe problem-based learning model, the study developed a change management plan to assist Marble State with implementing a solution to improve its retention rates. This section includes an organization overview, problem scenario, discovery and identification of the problem, the significance of the problem, broader implications of the problem, purpose of the project, and significance of the project.