See attached for instructions. Please put notes under the slides. I will personally record the presentation video. It needs to be 2-3 minutes. Thank you!
4.3 Forecasting Methods
Assignment: Case Study – Video Presentation
Case Study Overview
You have recently been assigned to the production planning department within your company. Your firm makes large blades for power generation windmills. The windmills are mostly used in the western part of the country and take about a week to build.
Your boss has provided you with the monthly demand for blades from the last year and asked that you produce a forecast for January so that he can work with the material planning and scheduling department to make sure that the required materials are on hand and schedule the workers hours.
By the end of the week, your boss has asked you to produce a professional video presentation with all of the needed data so that he can brief his boss on your findings.
Using the data provided, produce forecasting models using the following:
· Simple Moving Average (on a 4 month moving average)
· Weighted Moving Average (4 month moving average with weights = 0.4, 0.3, 0.2. 0.1)
· Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.3) (assume forecast for January is the same as the actual demand)
Provided Data for Forecasting Modules
Demand |
|
January |
1750 |
February |
1700 |
March |
1650 |
April |
1600 |
May |
1625 |
June |
1650 |
July |
1650 |
August |
1750 |
September |
1750 |
October |
1600 |
November |
1550 |
December |
1500 |
Demand Data Chart of Last Two Years
Demand Data Chart of the Last Two Years Download Demand Data Chart of the Last Two Years
The below video provides tips on using Excel® functions to assist you with this assignment.
LGMT 440 Video – Forecasting Transcript (PDF) Download LGMT 440 Video – Forecasting Transcript (PDF)
Questions to be addressed
1. While the MAD can be used to determine which forecasting method is the most accurate, normally, the MAPE is a better measure. So, compare the MAPE of the three methods and determine which is the best model (e.g. the most accurate).
2. Base on the chosen model, what should you recommend to your boss as the forecasted demand for January?
3. Produce a line chart that shows all three of the forecast and the actual demand.
4. Review the chart and the data. Do you think that the forecasts have given you an accurate result? Do you notice any trends in the data that could affect the January forecast? If so, what would you recommend to your boss?
Forecasting Models
· Simple Moving Average (on a 4 month moving average)
· Weighted Moving Average (4 month moving average with weights = 0.4, 0.3, 0.2. 0.1)
· Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.3) (assume forecast for January is the same as the actual demand)
Deliverable – Video Presentation
Video Presentation
Your boss has asked you to produce a professional video presentation with all of the needed data so that he can brief his boss on your findings. Produce a 2-3 minute professional video presentation on a forecast with a chart and answer all of the questions with your recommendations. Make sure your video presentation is of high quality since your boss may wish to show your results to his boss.
Use 'Studio' with PowerPoint® slides to create your video presentation. Review the information on the Presentation Guide for assistance.